Should You Wait for a Recession To Buy or Sell a Home?
Written by Graham Team · Graham Team Real Estate Advisors — Henderson & Las Vegas, NV · Contact
Wondering if you should wait for a recession to buy or sell a Las Vegas home? Discover why delaying your move for lower prices often backfires on…
Dated: July 18 2024
Here’s Why That Strategy Could Backfire.
If you’ve been stalling your move while scanning headlines for the word “recession,” you’re not alone. Howeverm you might be reading the market all wrong.
A recent survey by JBREC and Keeping Current Matters found 68% of people are hitting pause on their real estate plans because of economic uncertainty. But not all of them are scared. Some are strategizing. They’re banking on a slowdown, hoping it’ll bring cheaper homes and lower mortgage rates.
And it’s not a totally wild idea. As Realtor.com notes:
“In 2025 Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8%) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home.”
The logic? If a recession hits, the Fed might cut interest rates, which could drag mortgage rates down and make homes more affordable. And yes, mortgage rates historically dip during recessions. In fact, in every single one of the last six economic slowdowns, mortgage rates took a tumble. So if you’re holding out for that kind of opportunity, you’re not imagining it.
But here’s the part that many buyers (and some sellers) forget: home prices don’t typically follow rates down.
According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices actually increased in four of the last six recessions. The only dramatic price drop we’ve seen was during 2008, and that crash was a unicorn, not a playbook.
What’s more, we’re still facing a supply shortage, not a surplus. Yes, inventory is slowly climbing in some markets, but it’s still not enough to satisfy demand. That means prices? They’re still resilient. Maybe not soaring, but steadily ticking upward.
As Navy Federal Credit Union’s Robert Frick puts it:
“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point...”
So What Does That Mean for You?
If you're waiting for the “perfect storm” of low mortgage rates and low home prices, you might be chasing a mirage. Sure, a recession could nudge rates lower. But expecting a price drop on top of that? Not so fast.
Instead of gambling on a hypothetical future, make a plan based on today’s reality. Rates are fluctuating. Prices are holding firm. And if the right home or offer comes along, waiting could cost you more than moving forward now.
Graham Team Real Estate • (702) 930-9551 • Team@grahamteamnv.com
3007 W Horizon Ridge Pkwy, Ste. 210, Henderson, NV 89052
Frequently asked questions
Should you wait for a recession to buy or sell a home?▾
Deciding if you should wait for a recession to buy or sell a home depends on your financial readiness, but timing the market can backfire. While mortgage rates typically drop during economic downturns, historical data shows home prices actually increased in four of the last six recessions. Waiting could mean paying a higher purchase price later.
Do mortgage rates always drop during a recession?▾
Historically, yes. In each of the last six recessions, mortgage rates have decreased as the Federal Reserve adjusted monetary policy to stimulate the economy. While waiting for a recession to buy a home can lead to lower borrowing costs, you must weigh this benefit against potentially higher home prices due to low inventory.
Do home prices drop during a recession?▾
No, home prices do not typically drop during recessions. Many buyers assume a recession guarantees a housing crash, but home prices actually rose in four of the last six recessions. The 2008 crash was an anomaly caused by subprime lending. Today's severe housing inventory shortage keeps home prices resilient.
Why is waiting for a recession to buy a home risky?▾
Waiting for a recession is risky because you cannot guarantee home prices will drop. If you pause your search, ongoing inventory shortages may continue pushing home values higher. Even if mortgage rates decline, the resulting surge in buyer competition can spark bidding wars, ultimately making your home purchase more expensive and stressful.
Is it safe to sell a home during a recession?▾
Yes, selling during a recession is highly viable. Because home prices historically rise or remain stable during most downturns, sellers are unlikely to lose significant equity. Additionally, the ongoing housing supply shortage keeps seller demand high. However, if mortgage rates drop, you may face increased buyer competition when purchasing your next property.
Should I buy a home now or wait for the market to cool?▾
Buying now is often wiser than trying to time the market. Waiting for an economic downturn in hopes of a bargain is risky, as home prices typically hold steady or rise during recessions. If you find a home you love and can afford the payment, buying now allows you to start building equity immediately.